CONTRIBUTION OF FUZZY LOGIC IN THE CRITICALITY RISK ASSESSMENT

Abstract

In order to determine the criticality of each risk, an assessment of the probability of occurrence
(notion of frequency) and of the impact (notion of severity) will be estimated. The criticality is the product
of the probability of its occurrence by the impact which the risk has on the project to see on the whole
company. To arrive there, the practice of matrix or criticality grids inserting these two dimensions will be
necessary. However, the criticality gridpresent insuciencies inherent in the subjective behavior of expert
judgments and to the imprecise of the information engaged when in the assessment of the risk. Taking
into account the problems involved inthe imperfection of the knowledge impliedon the Conventional
Criticality Matrix (CCM), the objective of this work being to develop a Fuzzy Criticality Matrix (FCM) to
the supportof these diculties. The proposed model aims at improving the (CCM) by describing them
by a system of fuzzy inference. The proposed approach is applied to a test system which is the logistic
division within the company SAROST S.A.